Background
This is a storm surge model intercomparison study.
We compare one calendar year of observed and forecasted high waters,
using data provided by the NOOS community, i.e. institutes
from countries bordering the North West European Shelf Seas.
The station table is collated from locations each participant considers
most important, and totals 24 stations.
Observations are collected in real time,
and quality controlled for spurious peaks.
Data gaps due to transmission problems are not filled in.
We examine only the forecast with the shortest range
available for each model. This depends on the analysis time step.
Validation of forecasts of longer range (1,2,.. days) remains to be worked out.
North Sea - Baltic Sea ocean models
institute |
country |
analysis step |
hindcast |
forecast range |
forecast step |
bsh |
germany |
12 hours |
0 |
84 hours |
5 min |
dmi |
denmark |
12 hours |
0 |
60 hours |
10 min |
dnmi |
norway |
12 hours |
18 hours |
60 hours |
60 min |
ukmo |
britain |
24 hours |
0 |
48 hours |
60 min |
knmi |
netherlands |
6 hours |
6 hours |
45 hours |
10 min |
knmikal |
netherlands |
6 hours |
6 hours |
45 hours |
10 min |
mumm |
belgium |
12 hours |
6 hours |
120 hours |
10 min |
Notes:
knmikal : dutch model with kalman filtering
knmi(kal): No forecast for Aberdeen
bsh: No forecast for NorthShields
Results - standard errors
mean error (bias)
error standard deviation
peak bias
abs. mean peak error
To calculate peak errors, we use the 10 highest events
separated in time by at least one tidal period.
A maximum phase error of six hours is allowed for the event
to be considered predicted.
All stations
For single stations (empty plot -> no data)
TorsmindeKyst
Esbjerg
Vidaa
Wick
Aberdeen
Immingham
Lowestoft
NorthShields
Sheerness
Helgoland
Cuxhaven
Borkum
Bremerhaven
Husum
HoekVanHolland
terSchelling
Vlissingen
RoompotBuiten
IJmuiden
DenHelder
Delfzijl
Tregde
Stavanger
Oostende
Results - peak errors
Abs. mean % peak error. For this error estimate, we single out the 3
highest events at each station. These are usually the ones considered 'storm surges'.
24 stations
For single stations (empty plot -> no data)
TorsmindeKyst
Esbjerg
Vidaa
Wick
Aberdeen
Immingham
Lowestoft
NorthShields
Sheerness
Helgoland
Cuxhaven
Borkum
Bremerhaven
Husum
HoekVanHolland
terSchelling
Vlissingen
RoompotBuiten
IJmuiden
DenHelder
Delfzijl
Tregde
Stavanger
Oostende
....................