This is a storm surge model intercomparison study. We compare one calendar year of observed and forecasted high waters, using data provided by the NOOS community, i.e. institutes from countries bordering the North West European Shelf Seas.

The station table is collated from locations each participant considers most important, and totals 24 stations.

Observations are collected in real time, and quality controlled for spurious peaks. Data gaps due to transmission problems are not filled in.

We examine only the forecast with the shortest range available for each model. This depends on the analysis time step. Validation of forecasts of longer range (1,2,.. days) remains to be worked out.

institute	country	analysis step	hindcast	forecast range	forecast step
bsh	germany	12 hours	0	84 hours	5 min
dmi	denmark	12 hours	0	60 hours	10 min
dnmi	norway	12 hours	18 hours	60 hours	60 min
ukmo	britain	24 hours	0	48 hours	60 min
knmi	netherlands	6 hours	6 hours	45 hours	10 min
knmikal	netherlands	6 hours	6 hours	45 hours	10 min
mumm	belgium	12 hours	6 hours	120 hours	10 min

Notes:

knmikal : dutch model with kalman filtering
knmi(kal): No forecast for Aberdeen
bsh: No forecast for NorthShields

mean error (bias)
error standard deviation
peak bias
abs. mean peak error

To calculate peak errors, we use the 10 highest events separated in time by at least one tidal period. A maximum phase error of six hours is allowed for the event to be considered predicted.

All stations



For single stations (empty plot -> no data)
TorsmindeKyst Esbjerg Vidaa Wick Aberdeen Immingham Lowestoft NorthShields Sheerness Helgoland Cuxhaven Borkum Bremerhaven Husum HoekVanHolland terSchelling Vlissingen RoompotBuiten IJmuiden DenHelder Delfzijl Tregde Stavanger Oostende

Abs. mean % peak error. For this error estimate, we single out the 3 highest events at each station. These are usually the ones considered 'storm surges'.

24 stations

For single stations (empty plot -> no data)
TorsmindeKyst Esbjerg Vidaa Wick Aberdeen Immingham Lowestoft NorthShields Sheerness Helgoland Cuxhaven Borkum Bremerhaven Husum HoekVanHolland terSchelling Vlissingen RoompotBuiten IJmuiden DenHelder Delfzijl Tregde Stavanger Oostende