Sea level verification
opr/test model intercomparison 2008
NOOS models
Dansk version

Background

This is a storm surge model intercomparison study for the North Sea. We compare one calendar year of observed and forecasted high waters, using data provided by the NOOS community, i.e. institutes from countries bordering the North West European Shelf Seas.

The station table is collated from locations each participant considers most important, and totals 23 stations. Data gaps due to transmission problems are filled in using forecasts of longer range, where possible.

Observations are collected in real time, and later manually quality controlled. Wrong or doubtful data are deleted.

All data are time interpolated to 10 min interval.

We examine only the forecast with the shortest range available for each model. This depends on the analysis time step. Validation of forecasts of longer range (1,2,.. days) remains to be worked out.

North Sea - Baltic Sea ocean models

institute country analysis step hindcast forecast range forecast step observation step
bsh germany 6 hours 0 hours 84 hours 5 min 15 min
dmi denmark 6 hours 0 hours 120 hours 10 min 10 min
met.no (tidl. dnmi) norway 12 hours 18 hours 60 hours 60 min 60 min
ukmo britain 24 hours 0 hours 48 hours 60 min 15 min (07,22,37,52)
knmi netherlands 6 hours 6 hours 45 hours 10 min 10 min
knmikal netherlands 6 hours 6 hours 45 hours 10 min 10 min
mumm belgium 12 hours 6 hours 120 hours 10 min 10 min
fcoo denmark 6 hours 0 hours 54 hours 15 min 15 min

Notes:

knmikal : dutch model with kalman filtering
knmi(kal): No forecast for Aberdeen
bsh: No forecast for NorthShields
2008: No data for RoompotBuiten, IJmuiden, Delfzijl, Tregde or Stavanger

Results - peak errors

abs. mean % peak error (resultatkontrakt, 3 highest peaks).

23 stations

Past 5 years

Past 5 years as table

peak table

Single stations (empty plot -> no data)

TorsmindeKyst Esbjerg Vidaa Wick Aberdeen Immingham Lowestoft NorthShields Sheerness Helgoland Cuxhaven Borkum Bremerhaven Husum HoekVanHolland Vlissingen RoompotBuiten IJmuiden DenHelder Delfzijl Tregde Stavanger Oostende

For each model

bsh ukmo knmi knmikal dnmi dmi mumm

Results - standard errors

mean error (bias)
error standard deviation
peak bias
abs. mean peak error (10 highest peaks).

All stations 2008

Single stations (empty plot -> no data)

TorsmindeKyst Esbjerg Vidaa Wick Aberdeen Immingham Lowestoft NorthShields Sheerness Helgoland Cuxhaven Borkum Bremerhaven Husum HoekVanHolland Vlissingen RoompotBuiten IJmuiden DenHelder Delfzijl Tregde Stavanger Oostende


Jacob Woge Nielsen - 08 Oct 2013