This is a storm surge model intercomparison study for the North Sea. We compare one calendar year of observed and forecasted high waters, using data provided by the NOOS community, i.e. institutes from countries bordering the North West European Shelf Seas.

The station table is collated from locations each participant considers most important, and totals 23 stations. Data gaps due to transmission problems are filled in using forecasts of longer range, where possible.

Observations are collected in real time, and later manually quality controlled. Wrong or doubtful data are deleted.

All data are time interpolated to 10 min interval.

We examine only the forecast with the shortest range available for each model. This depends on the analysis time step. Validation of forecasts of longer range (1,2,.. days) remains to be worked out.

institute	country	analysis step	hindcast	forecast range	forecast step	observation step
bsh	germany	6 hours	0 hours	84 hours	5 min	15 min
dmi	denmark	6 hours	0 hours	120 hours	10 min	10 min
met.no (tidl. dnmi)	norway	12 hours	18 hours	60 hours	60 min	60 min
ukmo	britain	24 hours	0 hours	48 hours	60 min	15 min (07,22,37,52)
knmi	netherlands	6 hours	6 hours	45 hours	10 min	10 min
knmikal	netherlands	6 hours	6 hours	45 hours	10 min	10 min
mumm	belgium	12 hours	6 hours	120 hours	10 min	10 min
fcoo	denmark	6 hours	0 hours	54 hours	15 min	15 min

Notes:

knmikal : dutch model with kalman filtering
knmi(kal): No forecast for Aberdeen
bsh: No forecast for NorthShields
2008: No data for RoompotBuiten, IJmuiden, Delfzijl, Tregde or Stavanger

abs. mean % peak error (resultatkontrakt, 3 highest peaks).

23 stations

Past 5 years

Past 5 years as table

peak table

Single stations (empty plot -> no data)

TorsmindeKyst Esbjerg Vidaa Wick Aberdeen Immingham Lowestoft NorthShields Sheerness Helgoland Cuxhaven Borkum Bremerhaven Husum HoekVanHolland Vlissingen RoompotBuiten IJmuiden DenHelder Delfzijl Tregde Stavanger Oostende

For each model

bsh ukmo knmi knmikal dnmi dmi mumm

mean error (bias)
error standard deviation
peak bias
abs. mean peak error (10 highest peaks).

All stations 2010

Single stations (empty plot -> no data)

TorsmindeKyst Esbjerg Vidaa Wick Aberdeen Immingham Lowestoft NorthShields Sheerness Helgoland Cuxhaven Borkum Bremerhaven Husum HoekVanHolland Vlissingen RoompotBuiten IJmuiden DenHelder Delfzijl Tregde Stavanger Oostende